Friday, October 23, 2009

Agile, complexity and the space elevator

So last week I read an interesting article about agile development.

http://www.javaworld.com/community/node/3530

Made me think about the Space Elevator - the main limiter is the tensile strength of the materials for the cable to attach the orbit vehicle are not sufficient based on the weight of the cable (literally will snap under its own weight).

So when a project goal is "outside orbit" the automated decision making technology does not exist for us to do a tethered (solid path from surface to orbit) approach to a project that far away from the surface. The propulsion method requires actual ROCKET SCIENTISTS to perform incredible calculations in advance then launch knowing that they are going to have to make corrections along the way - literally lead the astronauts to guide the rocket outside the atmosphere. These are highly trained individuals.

In the end, we do not have the technology or knowledge yet to manage complexity on "out of orbit" projects without the cable breaking under its own weight. Nor do we give the agile scientists enough time in advance to define the goal and map the course. Often, they are literally sitting on a rocket with enough fuel to get there and no critical variables like weather, trajectory, velocity, sun activity, etc. (i.e. political landscape, budget restraints, agile knowledge gaps, lack of team discipline, etc.) It is launching blind.

When the technology makes the space elevator feasible, you can probably sit in a shuttle and ride the cable all the way up the the orbiter without much knowledge of the conditions, there will be sensors for that and it will be an automated process. However, climb into the Saturn V or the Space Shuttle and just aim it - even with knowledge of how to pilot a spacecraft, where do you think you will end up?

Anyway, as I am involved in more and more agile projects, I too am intrigued by the discipline, force and momentum required to get a self-directed team to escape velocity and safely reach a "orbital" project goal. It is not figured out yet - but data is flowing in all the time and eventually we will have an even farther reaching goal to attain.





Space elevator

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A space elevator would consist of a cable anchored to the Earth's surface, reaching into space. By attaching a counterweight at the end (or by further extending the cable for the same purpose), inertia ensures that the cable remains stretched taut, countering the gravitational pull on the lower sections, thus allowing the elevator to remain in geostationary orbit. Once beyond the gravitational midpoint, carriages would be accelerated further by the planet's rotation. (Diagram not to scale.)

A space elevator is a proposed structure designed to transport material from a celestial body's surface into space. Many variants have been proposed, all of which involve traveling along a fixed structure instead of using rocket powered space launch. The concept most often refers to a structure that reaches from the surface of the Earth on or near the Equator to geostationary orbit (GSO) and a counter-mass beyond.

The concept of a space elevator dates back to 1895 when Konstantin Tsiolkovsky[1] proposed a free-standing "Tsiolkovsky" tower reaching from the surface of Earth to geostationary orbit. Most recent discussions focus on tensile structures (specifically, tethers) reaching from geostationary orbit to the ground. This structure would be held in tension between Earth and the counterweight in space like a guitar string held taut. Space elevators have also sometimes been referred to as beanstalks, space bridges, space lifts, space ladders, skyhooks, orbital towers, or orbital elevators.

Current technology is not capable of manufacturing practical engineering materials that are sufficiently strong and light to build an Earth-based space elevator. The primary issue is that the total mass of conventional materials needed to construct such a structure would be so great that the cable would break under its own weight. Recent conceptualizations for a space elevator are notable in their plans to use carbon nanotube-based materials as the tensile element in the tether design, since the measured strength of microscopic carbon nanotubes appears great enough to make this theoretically possible[2]. Current technology could produce elevators for locations in the solar system with weaker gravitational fields, such as the Moon or Mars.[3]



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator